Back on November 11, 2023, I did a post about Rookies of the Year Award winners in Major League Baseball--both the worst ones, and some of the best. Today I'd like to do something similar, only using the Cy Young Award. This award is given annually to the best pitcher in each league. It's not as old as the Rookie of the Year, since it was only given out since 1956, and up until 1967 there was only one winner for all of baseball, and not separate American and National League winners. Like before, I'm going to make the statistic WAR (for Wins Above Replacement) my primary determiner of pitching effectiveness. WAR is very complicated to compute, but I'm going to use Baseball Reference's version. Essentially, below 0.0 is very bad, as in "shouldn't be in the majors" poor. 0.0--2.0 is substitute level, over 5.0 is All Star caliber, and over 8.0 is Most Valuable Player (MVP) level. Meaning, since the Cy Young winner is supposed to be the best pitcher in the league, their seasonal WARs should be well over 5.0, and probably at least 7 or 8 or above. Alas, especially in the past, voters for this award seemed to focus mostly on pitcher wins. Which in my opinion, as well as arguably every knowledgeable fan's view, is very flawed. Because a pitcher can earn a win even if he pitched terribly, and can get credited with a loss even if he pitched great. Wins and losses are team dependent, based on how well your team hits and fields. Anyway, enough setup, let's get to it. Let's start with the worst Cy Young seasons, as determined by WAR. Oh, and unless noted each pitcher was primarily or totally a starter.
1) 2.3 Steve Bedrosian, relief pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987.
2) 2.8 Early Wynn, Chicago White Sox, 1959.
2) 2.8 Pete Vuckovich, Milwaukee Brewers, 1982.
4) 2.9 Bob Welch, Oakland Athletics, 1990.
4) 2.9 Dennis Eckersley, relief pitcher, Oakland Athletics, 1992.
6) 3.0 Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds, 2020. (a)
7) 3.1 Mike Marshall, relief pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1974.
8) 3.2 Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians, 2020. (a)
9) 3.6 Bob Turley, New York Yankees, 1958.
10) 3.7 Whitey Ford, New York Yankees, 1961.
10) 3.7 Sparky Lyle, relief pitcher, New York Yankees, 1977.
10) 3.7 LaMarr Hoyt, Chicago White Sox, 1983.
10) 3.7 Eric Gagne, relief pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2003.
(a) Note that Bauer and Bieber were pitching in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, which was only 60 games instead of the usual 162 games. Therefore, their low WARs are not their fault, and would have presumably been much higher if they'd played a full season.
So let's attempt to fix these mistakes, and list a few pitchers more deserving of the Cy Young Award in these previously mentioned seasons. Again, these are starters unless mentioned otherwise.
1) Instead of Bedrosian in 1987, two Los Angeles Dodgers, Bob Welch, (7.1 WAR), and Orel Hershiser (6.4 WAR) were better picks, or Chicago Cub Rick Sutcliffe (6.0 WAR)
2) Instead of Wynn in 1959, Washington Senator Camilo Pascual (7.8 WAR), Baltimore Oriole Hoyt Wilhelm (7.6 WAR), or St. Louis Cardinal Larry Jackson (7.3) would have been better choices.
3) Instead of Vuckovich in 1982, Toronto Blue Jay Dave Stieb (7.6 WAR), Cleveland Indian Rick Sutcliffe (5.7), or Toronto Blue Jay Luis Leal (5.1 WAR), had better seasons.
4) Instead of Welch in 1990, Boston Red Sox Roger Clemens (10.4 WAR), California Angel Chuck Finley (7.7 WAR), or Baltimore Oriole Mike Boddicker and Toronto Blue Jay Dave Stieb (both 5.9 WAR) were better picks.
5) Instead of Eckersley in 1992, Boston Red Sox Roger Clemens (8.7 WAR), Baltimore Oriole Mike Mussina (8.2 WAR), or Kansas City Royal Kevin Appier (8.0) had more effective seasons.
6) Bauer's selection in 2020 was a good choice--no arguments here.
7) Instead of Marshall in 1974, New York Met John Matlack (9.1 WAR), Atlanta Brave Phil Niekro (7.9 WAR), and San Francisco Giant Jim Barr (6.3) all were better choices.
8) Like with Bauer, Bieber's 2020 Cy Young seems like a strong choice.
9) Instead of Turley in 1958, Detroit Tiger Frank Lary (6.7 WAR), St. Louis Cardinal Sam Jones (6.3 WAR), or Philadelphia Phillie Robin Roberts (6.3 WAR) were arguably better.
10) Instead of Ford in 1961, Chicago Cub Don Cardwell (6.1 WAR), Minnesota Twin Jack Kralick (6.0), or Los Angeles Dodger Sandy Koufax (5.7 WAR) were probably better picks.
11) Instead of Lyle in 1977, California Angels Frank Tanana (8.3 WAR) and Nolan Ryan (7.8 WAR), or Baltimore Oriole Jim Palmer (7.3) were better choices.
12) Instead of Hoyt in 1983, Toronto Blue Jay Dave Stieb (7.0 WAR), Kansas City Royal reliever Dan Quisenberry (5.5 WAR), or Baltimore Oriole Scott McGregor (5.3) had better seasons.
13) Instead of Gagne in 2003, Chicago Cub Mark Prior (7.4 WAR), San Francico Giant Jason Schmidt (6.7 WAR), or Montreal Expo Livan Hernandez (6.3 WAR) were better picks.
I pretty much always thought this, but this research has just solidified my position--relief pitchers should never be Cy Young winners--they simply don't pitch enough innings to justify winning over a starter. (And even when they did pitch a lot of innings, like Mike Marshall in 1974, there were still better candidates.)
Let's switch to another stat, ERA, or Earned Run Average. This is an older, more basic stat. Still limited, but not as bad as pitcher wins and losses. Let's look at the Cy Young winners with the highest ERAs in a season, ever. Some of these were in years where all pitching ERAs were higher, due to better hitting, such as in the heavy steroid years (the late 1990's to early 2000s). but still, let's take a look.
1) 3.66 LaMarr Hoyt, Chicago White Sox, 1983.
2) 3.51 Roger Clemens, New York Yankees, 2001.
3) 3.48 Bartolo Colon, Los Angeles Angels, 2005.
4) 3.37 Jack McDowell, Chicago White Sox, 1993.
5) 3.34 Pete Vuckovich, Milwaukee Brewers, 1982.
6) 3.25 Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays, 2003.
7) 3.23 Steve Stone, Baltimore Orioles, 1980.
8) 3.22 Pat Hentgen, Toronto Blue Jays, 1996.
9) 3.21 Whitey Ford, New York Yankees, 1961.
9) 3.21 CC Sabathia, Cleveland Indians, 2007.
Now let's try and determine what Cy Young winner had the least impressive total career. Again, going by WAR. Some of the guys on this list are still active, so obviously their WAR totals can improve dramatically, or I guess decrease if they decline markedly, or get injured or something. Also, obviously even great relievers will have relatively low WAR totals, since they pitch fewer innings than a starter. Here we go.
1) 7.9 Mark Davis, mostly a reliever, played for the San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, etc. in a 15 year career. Cy Young in 1989.
2) 11.7 Eric Gagne, mostly a reliever, played for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, etc., in a 10 year career, Cy Young in 2003.
3) 12.1 LaMarr Hoyt, played for the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres, in a 8 year career, Cy Young in 1983.
4) 13.2 Bob Turley, played for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, etc., in a 12 year career, with his Cy Young coming in 1958.
5) *13.5 Corbin Burnes, active, played for the Milwaukee Brewers, and as of now the Baltimore Orioles, 6 year career as of 2023, Cy Young in 2021.
6) 14.3 Jim Lonborg, played for the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, in a 15 year career, with his Cy Young Award coming in 1967.
7) 14.5 Steve Bedrosian, mostly a reliever, played for the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, etc. in a 14 year career, Cy Young in 1987.
8) 16.4 Pete Vuckovich, played for the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, etc., in a 11 year career, Cy Young in 1982.
9) 16.7 Guillermo (aka Willie) Hernandez, mostly a reliever, played for the Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, etc., in a 13 year career, Cy Young in 1984.
10) 17.0 Steve Stone, played for the Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, etc. in a 11 year career, Cy Young in 1980.
10) *17.0 Shane Bieber, active, played for the Cleveland Indians/Guardians, in a 6 year career as of 2023, Cy Young in 2020.
12) *17.6 Robbie Ray, active, played for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, etc., in a 10 year career as of 2023, Cy Young in 2021.
13) 17.8 Randy Jones, played for the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, in a 10 year career, Cy Young in 1976.
14) 18.2 Mike Marshall, mostly a reliever, played for the Montreal Expos, Minnesota Twins, etc., in a 14 year career, Cy Young in 1974.
Now let's flip things. Here's a list of the pitchers with the highest lifetime WAR, many of whom are in the Hall of Fame, but who never won a Cy Young Award. Obviously this is guys who pitched after 1956--great pitchers like Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Christy Mathewson, and Cy Young himself pitched and completed their careers well before 1956.
1) 95.9 Phil Niekro, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, etc. Hall of Famer.
2) 94.5 Bert Blyleven, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates, etc. Hall of Famer.
3) 86.2 Robin Roberts, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, etc., Hall of Famer. (a)
4) 82.8 Mike Mussina, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Hall of Famer.
5) 81.3 Nolan Ryan, New York Mets, California Angels, etc. Hall of Famer.
6) 79.5 Curt Schilling, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, etc.
7) 69.5 Rick Reuschel, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, etc.
8) 67.8 Kevin Brown, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, etc.
9) 66.7 Don Sutton, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, etc., Hall of Famer.
10) 66.1 Luis Tiant, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, etc.
11) 62.9 Juan Marichal, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, etc., Hall of Famer.
12) 62.3 David Cone, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, New York Yankees, etc.
13) 61.6 Tommy John, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, etc.
(a) Roberts played about half his career before the first Cy Young was awarded in 1956, so he had some, but limited opportunities to win one.
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